Past performance is the factor that best predicts results and completion in upper secondary education.
Strong correlation between national tests and coursework grades
There is a distinct correlation between results in national tests in Year 5 and in Year 8. There is also a strong link between results in national tests in Year 8 and grades in Year 10 (see Figure 5.9).
A total of 82 per cent of those who performed to proficiency level 1 in the numeracy test in Year 8 received a grade 1 or 2 for coursework in maths in Year 10. Of those performing at proficiency level 1 in the English test, 50 per cent received a grade 1 or 2 for coursework in English. The discrepancy between numeracy and English could partly be explained by a stronger tradition of using the full grading scale in maths than in English.
Figure 5.9 Pupils who sat national tests in English and numeracy in Year 8 in 2013–14 and who received a coursework grade 1–3 in English and mathematics in Year 10 in 2015–16. Per cent.
Source: Statistics Norway (Statistikkbanken)
Few pupils who perform at the lowest proficiency level complete their studies within the theoretical duration
There is a clear correlation between results in national tests and the proportion of pupils who complete upper secondary education within the theoretical duration. The correlation is strongest in numeracy and weakest in English. Less than half of those performing at the lowest proficiency level complete their studies within the theoretical duration. The exception is girls performing at the lowest proficiency level in English. Their completion rates do not differ much from girls who perform at proficiency level 2 in English (see Figure 5.10). Girls are more likely than boys to complete their studies, irrespective of which test or proficiency level we compare.
Figure 5.10 Pupils completing a general study programme within the theoretical duration frame, by results on national test 2007–08 and gender. Per cent.
Source: Statistics Norway